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I don't like certain types of bet downs. Let's say that a track has a good or even decent morning line maker and a horse is 12-1 on the morning line and goes off at 3-1. Generally speaking, it's a bad bet over the long run. Sure, occasionally it's smart money and the horse wins, but overall, it's an underlay.
Let's put it this way, horses that are 3-1 on the morning line and go off at 3-1, are better bets over the long run than horses that are 6-1 or higher on the morning line and go off at 3-1.
I have no stats to prove this but when I do testing, this is what I've noticed. My theory on this is simple. If a horse is, say, 10-1 on the morning line, the handicapper who made the line obviously didn't think the horse had a strong chance of winning. If the horse goes off as the favorite at 2-1 odds, you're essentially betting on a 2-1 shot that doesn't look good on paper, which doesn't make sense. If you're betting a 2-1 shot that is 2-1 on the morning line, the horse looks good on paper, has a better chance of winning, and will return a higher ROI in the long run because it will win more often than the bet down horses.
Bet downs make more sense when there's a mystery around the horse, like if a horse is a first or second time starter, so there's not much history there, or a horse that ships in from Europe, something like that.
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