Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Hard learned lesson. If you think your horse looks 10-1 on paper, is 10-1, but you think should be 4-1, bet away. If you think your horse looks 4-1 on paper, should be 4-1, goes off 10-1...RUN!!!
|
Sure, its nice to think that you might have found an overlay, and this argument may sound appropriate to the average handicapper. However, logically from a betting perspective I’m sorry to say that its completely illogical. Why?
Well first off you shouldn’t compare totally
Subjective information interpreted from whatever data you’re using (the “on paper” stuff) with completely
Objective information gathered from the live tote board activities. It’s like mixing oil and water.
I’ve also listed a few situations that can often contradict this argument:
1) The entry is 10/1 on the M/L and is currently 10/1 on the board (not much action), but you think it should be 4/1. Why? When the majority of players betting see the same (on paper) information. Maybe the horse is in the race for other reasons than trying to win.
2) The entry has say a 20/1 M/L and looks good on paper (say 4/1) and goes off @ 10/1. Why shy away from this bet?
3) The entry had a 20/1 M/L and looks marginal on paper yet opens at 4/1 and later drifts up to 10/1.
Early money should be very often be respected, especially at the tracks with the larger betting pools.
4) The entry was originally part of a coupled entry (Say a M/L of 3/1) and the better looking half (on paper) scratched. Very often the one left in the race is left there for a reason, and yes may go off at much higher odds and yes: Win
5) The entry’s odds value may have been impacted by the scratch of another horse which could enhance its chances of winning.
6) The entry’s odds value may be affected by a change in the current track conditions. This could both enhance or lessen its chances of running well.
7) Etc., etc.
