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Let's say we have a horse we believe is worth 3/1 odds (prob 1/4). Let's say we use a 50% fudge factor, prob 1/6 or 5/1 odd. But now just consider if the connections are going to try today. This happens a lot. May we say a prob 1/4 that they won't try today. If we were right with odds of 3/1, now we must factor this in, prob 3/4 (he'll run) * 1/4 (his assumed value) equals 3/16 or about 5.33/1. We out ran our fudge factor on this alone.
And given the who made the odds line does really work either. That's a tautological argument saying if he's good he's good. Nothing is proven by this. Some line makers do excellent jobs picking winners. But making money on these odds lines is next to impossible because of the necessary fudge factors and getting the odds leftover from the best handicapper, the public.
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"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
Last edited by Capper Al; 05-26-2014 at 06:41 PM.
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