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[Robert Fischer]

The crazy thing now = Will they be tempted to run him again after the Belmont??


He had that minor surgery to correct the OCD and he kept having heel cracks, so he wasn't healthy enough to run as a 2yo.

They finally got him to the races on Feb 18 of the 3yo season.

Justify is a once-in-a-generation talent, and Bob Baffert is the best at training a horse into elite condition and ignoring the normal class progression when needed.

He devastated a MDN and an OC75/N1X field in his first two starts and looked like a possible triple crown winner.

Then he ran in the Santa Anita Derby. Horse and Rider messed up and they went too fast entering the backstretch from the first turn. He had a rough lead change turning for home into the top of the stretch and wasn't finishing as smoothly as he had in his first two races. It was disclosed that he threw a shoe. (probably actually the truth, in addition to somewhat aggravating his heel issues). Even with the mistake, he was able to toy with the well-regarded Bolt d'Oro, due to a combination of his talent, and that he was the controlling speed, and that Bolt d'Oro was beginning to show tendency to flatten-out late in graded stakes going 9F+.

Justify entered the Kentucky Derby as a 'single'. Yet he still had to earn it. The weather made the track a mess and he was ridden in part to stay ahead of the kickback. He hooked up into a very fast pace and had to dig-deep to turn back Good Magic who surpassed his expected ceiling and loomed a brief threat. Exhausting effort. One of the all-time great Kentucky Derby performances.

The all-out super effort also badly aggravated his heel issues. He was lame the next day. Baffert told the media a yarn about 'scratches'. Initially tried to put 3/4ths of a shoe on the bad hoof but it didn't do the trick. They called in a hoof-reconstruction and shoeing expert. Fortunately he was able to do an excellent job of allowing Justify to continue to race. I don't know to what degree they had to medicate Justify for lameness, hoof work, and pain. His condition slightly deteriorated between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, but he was able to do some hard-held gallops in the days leading up to the Preakness, and it was evident that he'd gotten past the lameness and had a hoof to run on and good chance to gut-out a Preakness win.

A stud deal was readied. The plan was clear; Win the Preakness get the deal finalized. Win the Belmont. Publicly announce that he'd be pointing to the Travers and Classic. If the hoof was OK they would go ahead and add a winning Breeders Cup Classic to his resume. If he wasn't absolutely thriving before the Classic, they'd publicly announce his retirement.

He gutted-out a Preakness win. The hoof held up very well. He came out of the race well.

The stud deal was finalized.

Several days after the Preakness he was already in better condition than he had been prior to the Preakness. He's set to have a 4F work between 6/1 and 6/4. He looks primed to win an uncontested Belmont Stakes. He will win by a large margin if the pace is slow, or should the pace be honest, perhaps one or two stretch-runners will cut the margin to 1-3 Lengths at the finish line while at no point posing a threat.

After he wins the Belmont in uncontested fashion, the narrative will be that he "prefers a fast track". You see, Justify simply does not like that mud. There will be even less mention of his issues than the very brief mention before the Preakness. His surface preference will explain his improvement. This will also be repeated ad nauseam in the message boards by the same guys who got on the 'form-cycle' bus.

The fun thing in all this, is that there will be some temptation to point to the Travers now. While that's not the greatest thing for Ax Man who has for now inherited the Baffert ace schedule, it's interesting for racing fans. We may get to see our Triple Crown hero run again after the Belmont.