Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
Nitro, it always confounded me how you can determine the "dutch win % profit margin" prior to the race.
I would think you would have to establish your own odds line, then compare that to the EXPECTED final odds.
the ACTUAL "dutch win % profit margin" would be based on the FINAL odds.
an example for the above race would be helpful
Thanks.
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You know Formula I’ve explained this very simple and successful Dutching process to you and others many times over! You doubted my results before, because I was using the HK$ odds in my calculations. You and the other skeptics never got it because although the profit margins varied when converting to US$, the bottom line was always the hit frequency. If you’re not hitting at a reasonable frequency you can throw the profit margins out the window. So here we go again with you questioning profit margins!
First of all you might have noticed that my selections are posted
hours (
not minutes) before post time.
Why would I establish my own odds? That seems kind of silly when they’re posted early and during the live betting cycles. Besides I only use odds for betting purposes. The selections made are based totally on a tote analysis that’s both static and dynamic (during the betting cycle)
In fact, by 4 or 5 minutes to post time (and all during any typical HK betting cylcle) I’m inputting the changing odds directly from the tote board. BTW, after monitoring the HK tote board over the last 5 years I have an excellent means of anticipating the final odds. Sometimes I’m a little off one way or the other, and my actual Profit Margins returned more often than not are actually higher than what I post as the “Actual return”.
That’s because I don’t (and won’t) bet at the last minute.
This was my actual Dutch Calculation for Race #1 - At about 5 minutes to post.
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.7 4.7 9.1 BET PRF
$5 $11 $20
$336 $159 $90 $585 $322 55%
$907 $906 $909
This was the actual Dutch Calculation for Race #1 – At Post Time Odds.
Code:
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.6 4.5 9.0 BET PRF
$5 $11 $20
$362 $171 $94 $627 $314 51%
$941 $941 $940
BTW I won’t be answering any future questions of yours until you have the courtesy of answering the questions I posted on your thread.
