According to the CDC, seroprevalence testing shows 58.7% of the US population had Covid antibodies from prior infection as of 06-30-2022.
Clickable thumbnail attached below
According to the US Census site the population of the US was about 333.3 million as of 07-01-2022.
58.7% of 333.3 million works out to about 195.7 million people in the US who had at least one Covid infection as of 06-30-2022.
According to the interactive chart on the
USAFacts.Org site about 67% of the US population or 223.3 million people were fully vaccinated for Covid as of 06-30-2022.
Something else sticks out to me about the Penn State study from
post #23 above:
The authors looked at randomized controlled trials and observational cohort studies reporting the risk of myocarditis associated with the COVID-19 vaccines and the risk associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection up to May 2022.
They identified 22 eligible studies consisting of 55.5 million vaccinated cohorts and 2.5 million in the infection cohort.
The authors included 55.5 million in their Vaccine Cohort or 24.85% of the 223.3 million people in the US who were fully vaccinated for Covid as of 06-30-2022.
But they only managed to include 2.5 million in their Infection Cohort or 1.2% of the 195.7 million people who were reported by the CDC to have Covid antibodies (and therefore at least one prior Covid infection) as of 06-30-2022.
Read those two sentences again and let it sink in.
The Infection Cohort in the author's meta-analysis was pulled together from studies like this one, listed as #36 in the citations section towards the very bottom.
If you read that study you'll find the following in the third paragraph down from the top:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7114e1.htm
Quote:
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Five cohorts were created using coded EHR data among persons aged ≥5 years: 1) an infection cohort (persons who received ≥1 positive SARS-CoV-2 molecular or antigen test result); 2) a first dose cohort (persons who received a first dose of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine); 3) a second dose cohort (persons who received a second dose of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine); 4) an unspecified dose cohort (persons who received an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine dose not specified as a first or second dose); and 5) an any dose cohort (persons who received any mRNA COVID-19 vaccine dose).
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Everyone in the Infection Cohort was confirmed by a positive test.
You'd want that right? (Because you wouldn't want anyone in the Infection Cohort who wasn't infected.)
On the surface that sounds really good.
But it misses the big picture.
The Vaccine Cohort in the meta-analysis captured about 25% of the US population that was fully vaccinated when the study was ended.
I think it's a safe bet the Vaccine Cohort is representative of the overall US population that was fully vaccinated when the study was ended.
But the Infection Cohort?
I think it's a safe bet the Infection Cohort is NOT representative of the overall US population that had been infected when the study was ended.
The ONLY people in the Infection Cohort were those who felt genuinely sick enough to seek treatment. (Again just 1.2% of the 195.7 million people who were actually infected.)
The other 98.8% of the people in the health care databases used by the authors of this study who were actually infected?
They never sought treatment. Could it be because they never felt sick enough to do so?
There's a HUGE BIAS in the Infection Cohort of this study.
It has the same fatal flaw as the Johns Hopkins Dashboard in early 2020.
Fwiw, I've reached out to the authors with some questions.
If they respond to me I'll come back to this thread and post an update.
-jp
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