Race Four:
1 It’s a Shaw Thing is capable of hitting the board. Yet, I have concerns whether this Warrior’s Reward-bred is a “picture-taker”. On that note, I have stamina questions. This Medaglia d’Oro-bred has come up short in the stretch in four straight races. The endurance issue is the one that is most vexing. Yet, in her defense, this distaffer was rushed to the front in her last and then gamely held on for second. One of my concerns is: “How will the rail play?” Will that post be disadvantageous? This filly’s wet-track pedigree is acceptable, i.e., Medaglia d’Oro. Dylan Davis is back aboard for trainer Ed Barker. Barker does very well when moving a horse up one class. I keep thinking more in terms of a minor award.
Free Coffee did not run her race on a sloppy track in her last. She did go off as the 7-to-5 favorite. It is possible that the rail was not the place to be. Yet, this filly cannot be overlooked. She should benefit from any wetness, i.e., Orientate, Danzig, etc. I guess the question remains: “Does she want to go longer?” It seems to take her a while to get her into gear. Now, don’t get me wrong…this Hard Spun-bred bay filly can win; it’s just that… This Danzig-bred filly’s trainer, the Aussie,” Brian Lynch, is having a very good “Big A” meet. He’s 24% with beaten favorites and 22% with maiden claimers. This filly will have to angle to her outside. How easily or difficultly that can be accomplished will go a long way to determining how well she does in this race. At the very least, a board-hitting performance appears in the offing. The question remains: “Can she win?” I’ll use her, but I’m “buying insurance”. Reylu Gutierrez is in the irons.
Xanthique is a “mystery” horse. She’s been installed as a medium longshot at 6-1. I see this horse as a potential “sleeper”. Before you say: “Abuelo loco”. Before you call out: “Mishugaas”. Before you utter: “Tu sei pazzo!” Remember last Saturday. Joey Martinez. He was aboard a 35-1 named She Makes Me Smile. The horse won. Furthermore, I’d hate to see this Into Mischief-bred bay filly beat me (I believe that if I get by this first leg I’ve got a shot of findin’ a pot o’ gold at the end of the rainbow). Can history repeat itself? The Bob Ribaudo-Mark Keller combo have a way of surprising us. The aforementioned Bob Ribaudo does well with horses competing in their 2nd career race. This filly was 2nd in the slop in this company, last time. That despite brushing the gate. A clean beginning… Her broodmare, Qualia, had 2 winners from 4 starters. I’m using her because I think she has, at her best, a shot.
4 Big Bennys Tribute is a first-time starter out of the Rudy Rodriguez barn. Rodriguez is a modest 15% with his first-timers. The morning works are nuthin’ to write home about. Yet, Michael Dubb et al. paid 110k for this Curlin-bred. Her broodmare, Adrina, had 1 winner, 1 stakes winner from 1 starter. In addition, she should take to a sloppy track. Luis Reyes is in the stirrups.
5 Forbidden Frolic is another first-time starter out of the Linda Rice barns. What immediately catches my eye is the fact that this filly’s dam, Flashy Frolic, had 8 winners from 10 starters, 3 stakes winners. Yet, Linda Rice is only 14% with her first-time starters. This bay filly’s sire is only 6% with his first-time starters. This filly’s morning works are not overly impressive. Frankly, I have my doubts. Dave Aragona of Time Form US cites that this first-timer is the first foal out of very old dam, the aforementioned Flashy Frolic. That does not, on many occasions, augur well.
6 Sarah’s Rainbow is a filly I will likely leave out (you can’t bet them all). I see nothing redeeming unless you take into account the fact that she has faced better. Randi Persaud both part-owns and trains this Shackelford-bred 3-year old.
Bizness Beauty will move way up on a wet track, e.g., Giant’s Causeway, Malibu Moon, etc. Yet, she hasn’t been able to defeat weaker in her last two starts. That’s not too reassuring. I should mention that Ben Hernandez lost his iron at the start of this filly’s last race. With all the gloom and doom, one thing that you can hang your hat on is the fact that there’s a significant rider switch to Eric Cancel. I believe that fact alone enhances this filly’s chances. One thing you need to keep in mind: This filly has had “gate issues”. She has a tendency to stumble coming out of the gate. In a sprint, there’s little time to make up for a poor start. We should know immediately as to this gal’s chances as soon as the field leaves the gate. With a clean start, she’s in play; if not… Gary Contessa is this filly’s trainer. If I knew she were going to break cleanly…
Miss You Blues is playable. Yet, quite frankly, I don’t know what to expect. If there’s a track bias to the outside, this Montbrook-bred should move up. Will this 3-year-old first-timer hook a sharp right and head for the Belt Pkwy., or will she head straight down the backstretch? That is always a question-mark with a first-timer, outside-post horse. In her favor, I will say this filly had a most-solid, recent 4-panels work. She blitzed the 4 furlongs in :47, breezing. There is also a wet-track pedigree, the aforementioned Montbrook (Buckpasser). Yet, there’s also a concerning stat: trainer Michelle Nevin is only 8% with her first-time starters. Manny Franco is in the irons. I can see myself using this chestnut filly. However, I’ll watch her on the track and on the tote.
