Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Beyer 110
He's obviously fast, but I'm still not sure how he's good he is.
How is he going to react in a large Derby field where he's less likely to get loose against weaker or stalk in moderate fractions with a clean trip on a track conducive to speed?
For me, the difference between horses that are fast and the very best horses is overcoming adversity (against a bias, against the pace/flow, used wide, trouble etc..) and still running fast. There are plenty of horses that run very fast when they get things their own way that can't do it when used hard against tougher competition. I'm not sure I want to bet against him enthusiastically, but I'm not fully convinced either.
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You bet the race as if he’s not going to get the trip he wants, but you don’t put as much money on the line. Obviously because he has the ability to blow the race up at odds that make his win chances an underlay. Hopefully he gets an inside post that makes it more likely he gets bothered or is forced to go too fast avoiding it. He could set it up for an unlikely result like Rich Strike.
