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Thank you. I have spent tons of time getting to know Massa's stuff.
I'm going to suggest that anyone can simply look at the relative win probabilities of the top 5 or 6 ML horses, and see what the cumulative joint probabilities tell them. Just using your particular handicapping method to remove the weakest 2 or 3 weakest horses will get you to 60% or higher in many races. Not to steal the hedge focus of this thread, I just find actually playing those remaining horses in horizontal bets pays more.
When the ML favorite is bet down, its win odds move close to 40% and up, and as Lefty bemoans, it's hard to know where the final odds end up. That makes hedging more difficult. I don't mind, because I know roughly 60% of the time that horse will lose, and I have 2 other horses in that betting leg to keep the Pk3 now alive at even higher payoff odds. There are other reasons for my preference for horizontal betting over vertical hedging in a single race, but that's the main one I try to exploit in my handicapping.
I'm impressed with anyone that makes hedging works long term. That's why I suggest Dave Schwartz speak up here. He has that kind of expertise in his HSH software, and no doubt in his new forthcoming AI software. Not a plug for his software, I just know he has spoke about this approach on his site.
Jake
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