Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
One thing regarding Dave's comments below. I actually make pace figures the way he says for TimeformUS, treating each fraction like it's own race within a race.
If I had it to do over again, and maybe someday I will, I'd take the final time value of time each race's distance and surface use it for all pace figures in the race. I think it works better. I could write a few pages on this, but the to keep it short I'll say the reasoning is mostly because horses aren't racing to points of call. They are racing to the wire.
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I swear I saw Mario Fuentes do exactly that (race to the pace call) aboard Big Louie earlier today at Tampa in R7. Of course nothing in the data suggested to me the horse could get the distance.)
Seriously though:
There's some GREAT discussion going on in this thread.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Love this.
That was first written about in Scientific Handicapping (1963, Ira Cohen & George Stevens). They called it SIMULATED PACE.
Link to Book on Amazon
I used it for years until I ran into Jim Cramer's idea. |
The knowledge base (loosely defined as accounting for the effect of pace) existed in published handicapping books as far back as the 1930's.
I have a book (hardback) written by E.W. Donaldson titled How to Select Winning Horses published by Montee Publishing Co. in 1937.
I also have a PDF copy of an earlier version of the same work written by Donaldson titled Consistent Handicapping Profits also published by Montee Publishing Co. in 1936.
Fyi the 1936 version became a collector's item selling for as much as $1,000 on Amazon when Barry Meadow wrote a review after sitting down with it in the Keeneland Library.
Among other things Donaldson's work included parallel time charts, an exhaustion curve plotting exponential decrease in velocity given increase in distance traveled, a simple framework for plotting the times of the horses in a race graphically at each point of call, the effect of weight carried, ground loss on turns, some insights on trip handicapping in a chapter of the 1937 version titled Diagnosing the Finish, and even how to to identify, correct, and prevent 'figure creep' in your figure making process.
Donaldson's Pace Exhaustion Chart:
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Every time I think about Donaldon's deceleration chart from 1936, I'm reminded WHY Jim Cramer's Pace Figs are scaled the way they are. (The shorter the distance the higher the velocity.)
A Google search for the phrase "site paceadvantage.com montee publishing" (without the quotes) turned up a Paceadvantage thread from 2005 mentioning both books:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=21202
The oldest published work on the knowledge base I've personally been able to find is Donaldson (Montee Publishing Co. 1936.)
Who knows how long the knowledge base has been in existence published or unpublished before that?
-jp
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