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[cj]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Love this.



That was first written about in Scientific Handicapping (1963, Ira Cohen & George Stevens). They called it SIMULATED PACE.

Link to Book on Amazon

I used it for years until I ran into Jim Cramer's idea.

BTW, when I first came onboard with Cramer's pace figs, the BEST EVER (last 10) 1st Fraction was flat-bet profitable by about 2-3%!

Over the years that went away but even in the last couple of years I've seen that in dirt routes on fast tracks the $net for best ever 1st fract rating was a $2.00 net!

It's the only factor I have in my roughly 3,800 factors per horse that is stand alone flat bet profitable.

(There are still some workout ratings for FTS that have solid flat bet profits with the sample size in the thousands range over the past several years.

What I found was that it was BIG-TIME BETTER ON THE TURF - where pace is so non-functional anyway. It would probably also work in foreign racing where, like turf, a blazing pace just rarely happens.

CJ, if you ever want to discuss this, I'd be honored to share with you what I've found. We can do some real-time searches.

Sounds great Dave. Thanks for all the thoughts to chew on.