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[señorclipclop]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

A few comments, first on Spend A Buck. Loved that video. I recall that Derby quite well. I was at Longacres in Renton, Washington, just south of Seattle – Gary Stevens’s territory. I remember reading, I believe it was a Leon Rasmussen article in the DRF and he covered Roman’s Dosage for the Derby; Spend A Buck should win it. I bet that horse and he wired em’, I’ll never forget that stretch call. . . SPEND A BUCK BY FIVE! I’ve been a Dosage fan ever since. Won the Derby a few years later w/Winning Colors, Steve was up.

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Regarding Justify, his previous 6fl works were at 1:13.1 and 1:13.4, his most recent 6fl work was 1:13.4, so consistent. The problem arises, as papillon noted in his post at the workout thread, is in his 7fl and mile races he ran 6fl in 109 flat and 1:09.3. If you factor in “the 3 second conversion, he really ran two 1:06s.” The world record for 6fl is 1:06.46 run by Twin Sparks at Turf Paradise, 2009. Did justify run the 6fl fraction near world record time or is the variant incorrect?


Brohammer writes, “Need to lead front-runners that cannot get the lead are probably the worst bets in handicapping.” Quinn writes, ”If need-to-lead types that cannot get the lead represent the worst bets in handicapping, the class horses alone on the front may be the best bets in handicapping.” What makes Justify so lethal is his Dosage: DP = 5-6-8-1-0 DI = 3.00 CD = 75. Roman writes, “Only 22% of stakes winners at the classic distance of a mile and a quarter or longer have no DP points in either the Solid or Professional group while only 10% of stakes-winning sprinters have points in both.” Although Dosage gives us population statistics, Justify with 1 point in the Solid category fits the profile of the type getting the classic distance. In other words, if he gets easy and loose early, HE IS GONE! The only thing stopping Justify is Promises Fulfilled and pace.


Pace truly does make the race.

The last four winners were 0-0 in the back of their dosage profile.