Quote:
Originally Posted by Musket Man
2 preps has been the formula for peaking on Derby Day.
Epicenter has three preps and will need to run faster than he previously has to win IMHO. Usually not a recipe for success w/his prep schedule. (2 preps is a plus when I start to handicap the Derby). Have their been exceptions, yes, but give me the two prep schedule when sorting through the process.
Abarrio will need a hose to get the distance. He'll get play, which is a good thing, because it'll increase the value of others. The Fla. Derby was slow coming home, as F2 has pointed out. I won't no part of that contingent May 7th.
Barring post position draws, and how the next 27 days transpire, I see three likely winners at this point.
|
Starts in the calendar year before the Derby:
2021 Medina Spirit 4
2020 XXXXXXX
2019 Country House 4 (Max Security 3)
2018 Justify 3
2017 Always Dreaming 3
2016 Nyquist 2
2015 American Pharoah 2
2014 California Chrome 3
2013 Orb 3
I don't think it is set in stone that 2 starts is ideal. The horses that won the Derby on the above list with just two starts had plenty of two year old foundation.
