Quote:
Originally Posted by JustRalph
Great point!
Btw, why is this even used anymore?
The teams are picking out the most likely winners nowadays.
Rarely should you bet against them, right?
Years back when I was using jcapper (doing this by memory) I believe “S” types were only winning 8-11% and the 11% was in odd races where there was very little speed. This was due to “S” type didn’t have as much ground to makeup. There are exceptions but why waste your time when the exceptions will be 2-1 or less?
The only other “S” winners were in races with huge early speed with one or more horses outweighing the rest in early speed. Throw in distance differences and you could almost always eliminate the “S” types as winners.
Price horses were those early runners that had some reason to improve or they showed moderate improvement every race (usually after a layoff or a youngster coming up)
I don’t see any reason to be chasing running styles anymore. But I only play a few times a year now ……
Just my .02
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The reason why I would consider using it is to spot a horse that projects to be running out of position. e.g. a horse is a presser which projects to be running well back into the rear half early. Some horses might stalk and go by a few on the turn / quarter pole but I'm not sure I want to be confident of that same horse in a race where it projects to be running 8th of 9 early then needs to pass 7 other horses or in the Derby let's say 14 of them when it has never gone past more than 2 ... to be fair I think it's worth looking at and not everyone uses the same pace figures to project the early position in the first place. I use mine, I dunno what the teams use but I'd gladly put mine against anything they've come up with. Another worth noting would be the pure E horse that projects third early. Might it press and win anyway? sure, sometimes... I'd be wanting to lean against it though and who is to say someone else's pace figures e.g BRIS or the teams etc might have the horse actually making the early lead which may explain it being favored. If it's a potential spot to differentiate me vs my competition IMO it's worthy of some scrutiny.
