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Dave's response relative to playing horses to win is right on the money. This is why I have said in the little over a year I've been on the forum that playing gimmicks is the far, far easier way to go. Don't get me wrong, I have the deepest respect for those that bet win. They are purists and I commend them. But they are attempting the hardest thing in racing- a job made all the more difficult because of the-late money betting that goes on.
On this forum, Formula 2002 (Joe) consistently posts win-bet selections that approximate a 1.0 ROI. Could you simply make a reasonable living with this ability? Yes, but it involves a relationship with a high-rebate ADW and that generally will include volume restrictions (which at the moment are at a minimum of $1m annually wagered). Joe also dabbles in simple exacta plays, usually with the second favorite or favorite if his horse is not the favorite. This also yields him somewhere just south of a 1.0 return. Could you make even a bit more doing this? Yes, because the rebates are somewhat higher in the exacta pools.
Even with this possibility, I wouldn't consider it because when you get to complex verticals, the rebates explode and more importantly, the winning formula is easier, rather than harder. This is true because (as I have repeatedly said) the overlays in longer-shot verticals, particularly in supers, are far greater than you will ever find in the win pools. A quick example of this can be found by tracking the effect that longshots have on superfecta payouts. While a 25-1 shot will have an extremely low probability of winning, when you consider the effects that such an animal will have in a superfecta payout in a reasonably large field in any position on the ticket, you will see that his 25-1 odds to win will only be diminished to, say, roughly 17-1 in the fourth spot, but will then explode to well over 25-1 as his presence moves up in ticket rank.
Anyway, my purpose here is not to rehash this old territory, but simply to say to the original poster that if you want to make life easier on yourself, do not try to become a win-bet specialist. Instead, concentrate on the easier opportunities in complex gimmicks. As anyone who has followed me here will know (and I readily admit), I am not anywhere near the best handicapper on the forum. So I live on rebates and an easier niche, but this is a viable approach.
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