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An upcoming column of mine at American Turf Monthly:

Going Pro

After a big day at the track, who among us hasn't wondered the following:

"I made more money today than I make in one week on my job, a job that I hate. Wouldn't it be great to quit and just bet full-time?"

Maybe for you it's just been a fleeting thought, or maybe you've considered it seriously. Before taking this any farther, which we'll do a few paragraphs from now, let's consider whether for you it's any kind of option.

Be brutally honest. How long have you been playing, and how much money have you made? If you don't have records, its probably safe to assume the answers are awhile, and zero. If you do have records, what do they tell you? If you haven't already made a bunch of money, over some long period (not just the last three months, and not based on two big superfecta signers), it's unlikely you'll have any success turning pro. Most players go through peaks and valleys, and the valleys last longer due to the 20% takeout. A recent peak is no reason to believe the valleys have ended.

If your winning years are based on very few plays--e.g., you made only 526 bets last year--it's quite possible that you wound up on the right side of the Bell curve strictly due to luck (which is far less likely if you've made 10,000 bets). And if the difference between a winning and losing year happened to be one giant Pick 6 score or a tournament win, it's hard to make a case for turning pro.

If your good years are the results of paper "mind" bets--not real bets--you're not ready to make the switch. When the pressure of actual money is involved, people do all kinds of things they don't do when no money is involved. You don't know if you're going to make good decisions after a series of losses unless you've actually done it.

But let's put a good face on this and say that for the last three years, you've made thousands of bets each year and have made money every year. Before you plunge into full-time gambling, you'll need to review your finances--both what you have available, and what you'll need for expenses. Let's be kind, and probably unrealistic, and say you have a 5% edge on your bets, and you manage to find playable bets in eight races per day. If you bet only $100 per race, and you maintain your edge throughout the year, you'll make a measly $40 a day, which barely covers your travel expenses, admission, food, Form, and program. You've got to raise your edge (good luck with that one), find more races to play (possible if you have a terrific computer program which can scan races outside of your backyard), or raise your bet sizes. To make $200 a day with that 5% edge and the same eight races a day, you'd need to bet $500 a race. And unless you have at least a $25,000 starting bankroll, your risk of bankruptcy is unacceptably high. And are you going to be able to make good decisions at this level of betting, or will some very unpleasant photos cause you to go on tilt?

At that level of action, though, you may qualify for rebates, and this is where things get interesting. If you maintain a 5% betting edge and earn a 7% rebate, you're now making 12% on each bet, on average--so if you're still betting that $4,000 a day, you're earning $500 a day. The bad news is that even the biggest betting syndicates are thrilled to break even (they make their money on rebates), and breaking even isn't so easy after all. Lose just 4%--which puts you ahead of almost everybody at the track--and even with a rebate you won't be earning very much.

If you've got a working spouse who brings in real money (and who doesn't care that you've announced that you're now a full-time gambler), or you're sitting on a mountain of money from your recently sold shoe manufacturing business, the transition to full-time gambling will be easier because you've got a safety net. Most of us, though, don't have such a net--so whatever you make gambling is what you're going to have to live on. And what about those nice perks you used to get at work--a medical plan, 401k contributions, company-paid life insurance? Consider them gone, or funded by your gambling winnings.

What happens if your full-time gambling plan doesn't go as well as you had hoped? For instance, you lose. After a two-year shot at gambling, will you be able to get back into your regular profession, at the same level, or has time passed you by (e.g., for a medical researcher, two years is a lifetime).

What are your friends and relatives going to say when they've found you've abandoned your previous career for gambling? Probably, they'll think you're well on your way to bankruptcy, and isn't it sad about his poor, suffering wife?

If you're young and have no wife or kids, it's easier (think of all the young online poker pros), particularly if you're living in your mom's basement. But now the problem is social. Do you think you'll find the love of your life at the racetrack? Or the connections that are so necessary to succeed in the business world? And if you do meet new people, how are they going to perceive you if you tell them you're a full-time racetrack degenerate?

For some, full-time professional gambling is a fantasy--you go to the racetrack every day, or you work from home on your own schedule with nobody ever telling you what to do. No demanding boss, no time-wasting co-workers, no angry clients. But for just about everybody, it should stay a fantasy.