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Given Kawhi's legal situation, I think it's pretty clear that he is bluffing (a bad decision, but possibly not one made by him) and it's 100% that he'll be playing somewhere in the NBA next year. But, objectively, if the Spurs don't trade him, how good is that outcome for them? He'll be motivated to play well, to demonstrate his value, and they'll win ca. 55 games, but you can't build a future around him and you'll get nothing in return when he walks next year. This is actually a much better outcome for Kawhi than the Spurs.
However, if they deal him now, they'll likely be able to make the playoffs with whoever they get, which they claim is their goal, and the whole melodrama will be over. One way or another the Spurs have to accept that Kawhi is no longer a part of their future.
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