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[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by pandy

He thinks the edge is in betting favorites. I feel there's way more on an edge with longshots. He's a numbers guy, so am I, but I put way more emphasis on performance type figures than stats. His preference for favorites comes from the simple fact that favorites have a higher ROI than longshots. But, I think that's a moot point because the stats on based on betting every horse in each odds range. Naturally, if you bet on every horse that goes off at 15-1, you'll lose more than if you bet every horse that goes off at even money. But you're not going to do that, you're only going to bet the 15-1 shots that actually have a pretty good chance of winning and should be lower odds.

I mentioned this thread and the other one re the Chat With podcast to Dr Ziemba. He asked that I convey his response to pandy's comment bolded above.

It’s not that I necessarily bet favorites, but the idea is to bet on horses that have an edge. That can be a favorite or a longer priced horse.

Example: today (2/23) I bet Santa Anita, in the big race (Race 8) I won by betting a 4-5 super horse first in an exacta with 3 other horses. The 54-1 came second, so a good payoff.

I was following Super Screener which is a pretty good handicapping service. I do follow a bunch of these as well as the prices.

Ted