Quote:
Originally Posted by denniswilliams
Say I have a race positional running line as follows (an actual 1400M race @ Sha Tin):
8 8 8 1
7 7 4 2
1 3 1 3
9 9 9 4
12 12 10 5
6 6 5 6
11 11 12 7
4 4 2 8
2 2 6 9
3 5 3 10
10 10 11 11
5 1 7 12
I can measure the 'complexity' of the race (the level of positional changes) using a formula but it won't 'reveal' that the horse that finished 3rd ran the best race given the setup. A huge race, in fact.
Obviously, I can look at the chart for the race and see this. And more broadly, that pace horses did not fare well.
But perhaps there's a way to automate this and not have to do as much work. Or maybe train a model to do the work for me.
Any ideas?
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I suddenly understand what you are asking for.
I am doing exactly what you are asking.
The first step is to analyze the chart systematically. You can apparently already do that.
In my case the chart/race flow will be described on a scale between of -2 (extremely front flowing) to +2 (extremely closer flowing). That means between 1-2 standard deviations away from average for that distance and surface in either direction. The averages were calculated separately and set to zero.
I then systematically look for the extreme races in either direction and systematically identify horses that either ran well against the grain (potential upgrades) or ran well with the grain (potentially downgrades) with a set of rules. There are slightly different upgrade/downgrade rules depending on how extreme the flow was measured to be.
On race day, I run a report and it gives me list of all the upgrades and downgrades running on that day (track and race). So when I handicap I can go straight to the races where I may have a play.
Your example race would probably be identified with a closer flow. The horse that finished 3rd would be picked up as an upgrade and couple of others would be downgraded and reported to me when they race back. After that it's going to be a subjective handicapping process as to whether I want to play someone back or key against them or how much better/worse a horse ran than it looks on paper.
