I have a goal to be able to make a living at this if I so choose once I prove I can do it. I'm treating it like a new business. Here's what I'm up to:
Step 1: I formulated a hypothesis - a handicapping/wagering theory that I ~think~ I'll be able to prove works for me. It involves taking things I've learned from other people/books/internet posts and experience and making them my own by using tools and information slightly differently than I've seen from other sources.
Step 2: Figured out what I wanted to achieve, and drew out a plan to marry my theory and my achievement goals. I'm opting for a high volume hands off automated approach that, if it works, will return maximum dollars with minimal daily time involvement.
First, I'm building out technology I'll need to execute my approach. I'm about "finished" building out my spreadsheet/VBA software that does all of the handicapping/wagering and tracking for me. I'll just maintain and troubleshoot.
Step 3: Gather enough data to determine whether my approach is worth full blown testing. I don't want to start wagering until I can return a positive paper testing ROI and be relatively sure it will hold up over time. I'm using the software exactly the same way I will if it works, I'm just not placing live wagers. I'm also populating with more and more tracks as the days go by. I probably have close to 20 tracks in my system now.
Step 4: Not here yet, but as tracks pass my Step 3 test, I'll begin making $2 wagers until I reach Step 5.
Step 5: Once I have 200 wagers with a positive ROI at a track/distance (sprint vs. route), I'll move my bet size up to half my max bet size based on bankroll.
Step 6: Once I have 500 wagers with a positive ROI at a track/distance, I'll move my bet size to maximum based on bankroll.
If it works, I'm a happy camper. If it doesn't work, my picks will be available for $20/track/day at w3.gimmeur$.com
As for advice, I'm not qualified, but if I were, it would be to take other people's opinions about how you should go about your business and shove it deep in the circular file. Think about what YOU want and work towards that goal. Unless there is some valid scientific reason for an opinion, it is just an opinion and is worth as much as you care to pay.
