Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
I've made morning lines for harness and thoroughbreds. First of all, NYRA's line is solid. But no matter who does a morning line, there are always going to be some complaints because the line is subjective. I've made horses 5-1 that went off at 8-5. I honestly didn't think that many people would bet the horse.
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I'm not complaining..
Who says I'm complaining? Its all good.
I also make my own lines. Another reason I like Formulator. I toggle ML's off.
tophatmert made the same point I made. It helps juice multi-race payoffs when he is high, but the tote is lower.
I don't
feel a horse should be 4-1. I know the horse will be 4-1 and I'm correct ( at some decent rate). In a double scenario where I see a 2-1 to a 4-1, I am chasing that double with a minimum expectation around $18 for a buck.
But when NYRA ML is actually a 6-1 to a 9-1 ML, that double will pay me $27 because the 6-1 and 9-1 ML scare people off. So the 2-1 to a 4-1 on the tote, pays a premium.
As far as picking the favorite in each race? I don't measure that way because honestly, I can do that as well. If you play one circuit, most people could do that part.
