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I have a theory about the decline in Beyer numbers over the years.
Years ago, a $10,000 claiming race may have had a purse of $8,000. Now the purse might be $30,000. There is incentive for $10,000 claiming races to have horses worth $20,000 or more running in them due to the purse. A super-claiming trainer drops a $20,000 horse into a $10,000 race, possibly running on more than hay oats and water, and that race will be run much faster than the years-ago $10,000 claiming race. Meanwhile stakes races at most tracks are run without lasix, further narrowing the gap between $10,000 claimers and stakes horses.
The result is that Beyer numbers for the best horses are lower than they used to be, regardless of the stakes horse's innate ability.
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