Quote:
Originally Posted by steveb
even if you are not winning, but losing less than the rake, then you are doing better than most.
nobody is going to be winning with ranking alone, but it can be a useful piece of the puzzle, especially if normalised and recency weighted.
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Unfounded statements like the bolded part do not help.
It may be so in
your world - using
your particular modeling techniques - but that does not make it a UNIVERSAL TRUTH.
I would hold that:- Most of the world's handicappers use ranks.
- The ultimate goal is to analyze and take advantage of the mistakes of the "pool collective."
- Therefore, ranks are quite viable.
Of course there are factors in racing that are better addressed in an analog fashion, but dismissing all ordinals out of hand only indicates that you have a strong belief/bias towards your way of seeing things.
Quote:
The way it often works (but not always you have to test it) if you add something new to an already decent fundamental model --
For example factors based on positional calls data --
And provided the existing model doesn't have anything in it with a strong correlation to what you just added:
You tend to get a small incremental improvement in the performance of the resulting new model vs. the old model.
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Absolutely!
Incremental improvement is the key.
