Quote:
Originally Posted by proximity
ok poker fans we're back with one final report for 2017 and it's from our favorite casino the beautiful horseshoe baltimore!!
we have a long day of gambling ahead of us to secure caesars diamond status for 2018 and we start out at the hold 'em tables in 1/3 no limit company.
this game is going back and forth and really i'm ok with that. i just need to grind out my time for diamond and head back to grantville to figure out what the hell to do with the rest of my life.
i'm up $21 when a popular horseshoe dealer, miss aesthetics, deals me kk in the small blind.
the player utg raises to $12 and five players call.
this seems like a situation where they can all be in each other's way (all the aces could be out) but a king or two could be out there too?
i decide to shove my remaining $220 and just take what's out there.
the original raiser calls with AK and everyone else folds.
9 3 5 rainbow flop.
4 turn.
2 river.
one last time...... THANK YOU FOR READING!
game -200 (1/3)
year -2726 (54-62)
bonus 0 (920)
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Simply bad variance on what to me would seem like a +EV move by you. The original raiser probably thought they were "somewhat close" to a coin flip thinking you had an underpair, with the added benefit of some extra dead money in the pot in addition to your shove.
In reality, your opponent was in an even worse position as one of the poker calculators shows you with a 69-31 advance pre-flop, which swelled to 85-15 before the turn and 84-16 before the river.
IMO one of the hardest things to understand and have faith in is that if we continue to play a significant number of hands, future results are going to "gravitate closer" to the expected EV.
Cheer up and keep making those +EV decisions. Money will eventually flow your way. So did you make Diamond status, or is that to be revealed in a future post?