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Old 03-24-2019, 11:08 PM   #32
HalvOnHorseracing
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Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Denver
Posts: 4,163
For sprints I would would use an adjusted number for the half mile and the finish. For routes I used the adjusted 3/4 and finish times. Those were numbers I calculated myself using historical data. I updated it every two years. I found that the numbers changed very little.

I think the quarter mile time is not worth much UNLESS the track is playing to speed to the point where even faint hearted claimers are hanging on. Then I want to know which horses are likely to be on or near the lead. However, I do use the fraction from the 1/2 mile pole to the 1/8 mile pole. So a race would look like.

Horse A: :45.3 1:11.0
Horse B: :45.1 1:10.4
Horse C: :46.0 1:11.0

Horse B may turn out the favorite, but A is just as good and B is close so I may just use the horse with the highest odds, or bet some exacta combinations. What you are really looking for in a race is a horse that looks like a 1:12 but is actually a 1:11 after adjustments. Of course you can adjust all the times to numbers like you see with Beyers or Timeform.

I've mentioned before that I spent hundreds of hours calculating variants by class and distance. I just don't have the time or motivation to do it anymore, so I rely on Timeform. I've tried Sartin and Thorograph (not Ragozin). I found that Sartin took a lot of time in comparison to using times you've already adjusted. Thorograph always stayed a little mysterious for me. It had plenty of good data, but I found myself beset by the "paralysis of analysis." I'd see that one horse had great breeding but the trainer was ice cold. I couldn't adapt. Of course, it was also $25 a day, which was a lot if you didn't really didn't have a good grip on how to maximize what Thorograoh provided. Don't get me wrong. I have total respect for people who use Thorograph or Ragozin and l'm not putting them down at all. Those sheets just weren't for me.

I wish I could re-live the old days with the money I have today! LOL
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