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I was a Phase III Sartinista in the early 90s and I confess the Sartin thinking made me a much better handicapper. And, to add, I still use most of the lessons I learned to this day.
One of the nuggets from Sartin pertains to track variants and adjustments. Without going through it all, I'll just say this... my opinion only, of course.
-- Figure makers of all stripes are capable of making fast horses and sharp efforts 'slow' and make slow horses 'fast' by the way they 'adjust' for the track variant.
-- And yes, tracks do run faster or slower at times, but rarely by the sharp variance we are told by the popular fig makers.
-- Weather, slop, mud, drying out, etc. causes changes in the track speed surface, and I find this to be a more accurate way to determine such a change in the daily variant.
-- Track speed, today's race make-up and current form of true contenders will make for a more accurate variant than will par times or projections, imo.
Yes, the Santa Anita track may have played a bit slower than normal on Saturday but a talented improving horse such as Justify should have galloped home faster than he did as a result, especially since he had an uncontested early advantage. He didn't do such a thing.
Justify and Bolt d'oro may actually be slow horses, heaven forbid --ha-- and not the victims of a slow racetrack.
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