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Originally Posted by cj
I would almost never have this. How often does a horse not in the top 3 surge to the front at the 1/2? Seems pretty odd.
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That doesn't surprise me, I use velocity "ranges", not single velocity figures, so I get a "range" for each of the 3 segments of the race, the ones I posted were assuming their best velocities would be run. The value of my approach is that one can see improving velocities, versus the other runners, in each segment. So, the fact that the 4 was positioned 1st at the 1/2m, only means that he has the potential to do that, not that he will do it. It represents a horse that is not a contender early but has more sustained or late speed than others in the field.
Projections are just that, projections, as you know. Sometimes they work and sometimes they don't, depends on what happens in the running of the race.
