Fooled By Randomness
My post above should have read as follows... apologies!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wizard of Odds
Please check out this book/concept.
If a six-sided fair die is thrown 60 times, except for ties, one number will have been thrown the most often. Let say the number "4" was thrown 14 times and 14 times is the greatest number of times thrown of all the numbers "1" through "6".
For the next 60 throws, would you expect the number of "4"s that appear to be: (1) less than 10 because now numbers other than "4" are due; (2) 10 times because that would be the expected value for a fair die; or (3) more than 10 because, even though the die is fair, "4" has been thrown more than its fair share thus far?
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"God hath written the language of the Universe in Mathematics" - Galileo
Last edited by Wizard of Odds; 12-12-2018 at 11:18 AM.
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