Only one or two races to analyze for each horse right?
Let's give this 2-year-old stakes race a shot.
Catherinethegreat (5/2) - Ten-length winner at Gulfstream Park, although on a sloppy track. Also, she may have defeated tomato cans over there. While she could win here, it would be no fun to settle for a questionable favorite.
Nonna Madeline (7/2) - Average speed figure at Monmouth is not a concern. Todd Pletcher showed in past seasons that he warms up his 2-year-olds with a soft race at Monmouth, before they move forward at Saratoga. In fact, one example is this filly's sister, Nonna Mela, who won the Adirondack Stakes. The pick.
Congrats Gal (12-1) - For a 12-1 shot, she actually holds a solid TimeformUS Speed Figure of 92. She led all the way at Laurel through a fast pace. Can she do the same here? The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, so the dynamics will work against her at a tougher track. Skeptical.
Fightress (12-1) - She broke her maiden by four over the mud at Churchill. The speed figure was a relatively low one at 81 though. Pass for now.
Lonely Road (15-) - This one owns two starts. She broke her maiden the second time around, winning a Belmont maiden by over four lengths. Speed figure was an ordinary 83. Nothing sticks out on paper here, so pass.
Tapping Pearl (10-1) - Here is a Tapit half to Drill. This filly broke her maiden by a moderate two lengths at Churchill, after setting the pace on a speed-biased track. Speed figure was a lowly 73. Prefer to wait and see.
Serengeti Express (6-1) - Intriguing Amoss filly broke her maiden by over five at Indiana, earning a field-best 96. None of the horses from that race started since then, making it hard to analyze. This horse is wheeling back in 16 days, which means the connections want to strike while the iron is hot. Contender.
Eyeinthesky (6-1) - Hyped filly started as the second choice in the Astoria, and actually ran well when closing for third. She might turn out to be a better elongated sprinter, or even a router. Oddly, Florent Geroux abandons ship to ride Tapping Pearl. That could be a bad sign. But she could come late.
Lady Apple (8-1) - Some kind of sale occurred after the April 12 Keeneland race. Phoenix Thoroughbred bought part of her, and then sent the filly to Asmussen. She rewarded them with a brave inside run in the Astoria, only losing by a neck. Irad is up. Expect another solid run to hit the board.
Blame the Frog (10-1) - Nothing to note here. Three starts and no speed figures above 82, although they progressively got better. Pass for now.
Conclusion
In terms of the win spot,
Nonna Madeline and
Serengeti Express seem most interesting.
