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Old 02-11-2018, 09:00 AM   #1
Teach
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Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,032
Aqueduct: Sunday, February 11

Race One: One Mile, NY-state-breds, MSW.

THREE GOALS steps up into MSW ranks after four tries in 50k claimers. This well-named Hat Trick-bred colt juuuust missed in his last; -- he went off “the chalk” -- at this distance on a good track about one month ago. I ask: Is the step up to MSW company a reach? Also, how will the rail play in this monsoon-type weather (thank goodness it ain’t snow!)? If he leaves, can this colt get the jump on this field from the rail? “The king of Philadelphia,” Kendrick Carmouche, reprises the ride for trainer Mike – he’s having a solid “Big A” meet – Dilger.

HOKULEA (I know you might be interested: A Polynesian double-hulled voyaging canoe). This Unbridled’s Song-bred finished a closing second at the distance earlier in the month (this grey colt was well-bet). The colt’s pedigree says he should handle the wet track (he raced on a “good” track in his last start). It appears he will be forwardly placed. Trainer Gary Contessa tries blinkers with this recently-claimed colt. In addition, Contessa does well with horses making their second start off a claim, albeit with a limited sampling. Chris DeCarlo reprises the ride.

SPEKE has rock-solid connections in support of his second pari-mutuel start: jockey Manny Franco, trainer Todd Pletcher, and owner Barry Schwartz. This Pioneerof the Nile (Empire Maker)-bred (Think: American Pharoah…he loved the slop) comes out of a large-field MSW try late last month; he finished a closing 5th at 6-panels. I believe the smaller field. The wet track. The race under his belt. The added distance. And, I can add to the equation, the colt’s late running style, should combine for a trip to the Big A’s winner’s circle.

DANNY CALIFORNIA is another horse that can come “off the tailgate”. I can’t quantify this, but…I love Dylan Davis when he rides on wet tracks. Many horses – but also jockeys – have preferred racing surfaces, as well as distances. All I can say is that this handicapping inclination comes from the simplest method of research: observation. This chestnut colt, on the top-side, has some serious wet-track lineage, e.g., Afleet Alex, Northern Afleet. Tom Morley trains with the aforementioned Davis, in the irons.
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CARMINE’S HONOR would be a surprise; yet having wagered on horses for nearly six decades…nuthin surprises me, any more. Yet, I’d be hard-pressed to make a case for this 3-year old To Honor and Serve-bred colt. In his last two, this bay colt has finished a New York city-block behind the field. Yet, in his initial start, this colt was quite competitive. Go figure! Joe Rocco, Jr. is in the saddle for trainer Gary Contessa’s other horse.

Choices: - -

I'll be back later with my other picks.
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Walt (Teach)

"Walt, make a 'mental bet' and lose your mind." R.N.S.

"The important thing is what I think of myself."
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