Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I honestly don't know how anyone could with any reliability these days. I'm not sure it could ever be done really, but you have to start somewhere. With the myriad of classes, conditions, distances, surfaces (including different courses at the same track), etc, it is just not possible in my opinion.
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I agree. I have given up hope of ever doing it nationally even if I had the data.
What I more or less do is stick to the classes where I have a good sample of older horses. Then I build theoretical PARs up and down around them based on the pecking order and conditions.
If you know your circuit well and watch how horses move around between maiden, claiming, allowance, and statebred you should have a very good idea of where all the horses fit on average.
The only tricky ones are 2yos and 3yos because the relationships compared to older vary as the year goes on and they are different between claiming and non claiming races.
I'm not trying to get too perfect anymore. I'm just trying to understand what's typical at the class. It helps as an owner too. When you are trying to spot your horse, you already know what kind of figure he's capable of. If you are thinking up moving him into another class or to another circuit, it helps to know what the competition in that class is likely to look like even before you start dragging up the PPs of the some of the horses that may show up.
