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Old 05-12-2016, 06:19 PM   #6
whodoyoulike
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
--This is intended for those that want to find a couple horses quickly, put a little scratch in their pocket....and go on with life.

If only it were that easy. In my quest for the easy winners, I've come up with a new method. It always seems necessary to remind folks I'm not here to "prove" anything--and yes, as a matter of fact I do know this is an incredibly small sample. ...

No sir---the results were so bad I just gave up--could see where it was going--nowhere. Keep in mind---Prime Power is still just a mechanical method--it's not neural, it doesn't "learn". So with that screen I supposed --was giving the most obvious, blatant, overbet favorite.

I tried just taking the highest odds of the top two rated. Was amazing at first--remember that couple days when CONGARETTE, STORMY SKY, & FLATTERYWILLGETYOU all scored at Big odds? Each of those was Prime's 2nd pick--thought maybe I was on to something, but nooooooooo. That streak stopped as quickly as it started.

Today's method: one of the biggest, most important facts I've ever learned in handicapping--is how important CLASS DROP is. If you are building a method---you can't go wrong starting right there--horses dropping in class.
Don't remember the exact number, but it's something like "Horses going UP in class win less than 25% of all races". That's ballpark anyway.

I took every top-rated Prime Power horse @ Belmont--and of those ONLY selected horses competing for a smaller purse today--than last race. If the horse ended up being scratched--I didn't go looking for the next in line--it was just a non-race for this method: ...

Good luck all

-NCG
BPP is a good rating system and have noticed a lot of my top selections are also the top BPP. So, I do like it. The problem I have with it is that it's not a predictive algorithm. I think it's based strictly on past performances. I've previously mentioned on here that I was handicapping two races for the same horse on the same day, different tracks and different distances but the BPP was the exact same number for each race. The description for BPP indicated that distance plus a number of other variables were considered in it's calculation. I know this is only one example but, these situations don't come up very often to build a database. I guess, you just need to know when to apply it.
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