Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
Its also worth noting that while its very easy to discount closers who won off fall apart race it does tell you that when there is a fast pace they can finish.
I often see horses who closed off average paces do little with fast paces. I chalk this up to they had to be used more to stay within contact of the leaders and thus did not have the same punch as they did with an average, or even sometimes slow pace.
While I almost auto discount fall apart closer winners next out due to price in the case of the Derby I would not. Vinno Rosso and My Boy Jack would come to mind.
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This is such a great point and one I always like to point out when evaluating closers. Many players do not get the implications. Many dismiss closers who win when the pace in front of them is fast. But lesser closers would get stranded by the fast pace. The ability to finish fast vs fast is the only thing that matters. I talked about this til I was blue in the face last year and folks weren't getting it. Good to see your post here GMB.
