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[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by pandy

I agree with GBL that exotics are better for producing a positive ROI. But it's difficult to generate a positive exotic bet ROI with a key horse that has a minus ROI expectation. In other words, you still need to find that overlay. And, again, your chance of long-term success goes up if the key horse is not the favorite.

As for being ultra-selective and not making many bets, I don't agree with that. I think some players can make a lot of bets and still win. I read Mike Maloney's book and he seems to make a lot of wagers, and I know other players who are pros who make a lot of bets. One professional player who is currently active bets several pick 4's and pick 5's every day and has a lot of action, and wins.

There were three main points I wanted to stress from this thread, A). Favorites are generally bad bets in the long run. B). The horses that have the best long-term potential ROI are often not your top pick, or are not the horse that appears to have the best chance of winning. Your chances of winning actually go up if you only key the horses that have a lower win expectation. This is especially true in exactas and other vertical wagers where you can key a horse first or second. C). Testing, or actually betting and record keeping, is more reliable than "theory".

I remember many years ago reading that eating eggs can raise your cholesterol. But then I read a bodybuilding book by Vince Gironda, a natural professional bodybuilder who owned a famous gym in Hollywood. Gironda trained bodybuilders and movie stars who had to buff up quickly. He wrote a book called Unleashing The Wild Physique which was published in 1984. In that book, he said that the medical reports about eggs were false. He explained that for many years he had been having his pupils eat a dozen or more eggs a day as part of their training diet and their cholesterol didn't go up. Eventually, the medical profession started to test people and found the same thing, although eggs contain cholesterol, they don't increase your cholesterol. My point being, testing and real life results trump "theory".

I agree with all of this down to the eggs Pandy!