Quote:
Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned
...I still can't get past the times of races he has ran. He has NEVER ran fast....
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What's the old saying? "Time only counts when you're in jail".
If he was a speed horse and never run a fast race, it would be more of a concern. But a deep closer likes to settle near the back, and so the final time and speed figure he gets is mainly dependent on the talent of the front runners.
- since they are not being passed until late.
He looks like the key to the race, but of course has a much bigger risk with trip in a 20 horse field.
Handicapping the Derby is a different kettle of fish than the Breeder's Cup later in the year, after more starts allow form and class easier to gauge. IMHO, it comes down to guessing which horse is poised for a major move forward as a lightly raced 3YO. Sierra Leone could easily be sitting a on Triple Digit Beyer and lifetime best, but will it be good enough?
