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Old 06-06-2017, 03:02 PM   #19
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
Parx r7

when you only have one qualifier, I guess that maker her the RACE O' THE DAY.

F&M OC40n3x $50kpurse 1m70yds

PLEASANT MINE
SERIOUS HAPPINESS
TRACE OF GRACE
LINE OF BEST FIT
FLATTER ME ZANJA
LA INESPERADA

ACT I: "the 5/16 race"
exit the 5/16 race at this class.
Subtle dynamics. LINE OF BEST FIT Fired off to a strong start wide, as did PLEASANT MINE while very wide.
Meanwhile, Toledo, and Pennington on FLATTER ME ZANJA, rode intelligent races saving ground and horse for the late run.
LINE OF BEST FIT briefly won the speed duel inside her rival, and then took on Toledo's winning filly for a few strides, before flattening out and running evenly with PLEASANT MINE.
FLATTER ME ZANJA capitalized and came up to take 2nd while showing decent energy and fundamentals, although lugging-out a bit.

Subtle, but it appears that PLEASANT MINE and LINE OF BEST FIT were probably best out of that race.


ACT II: "Gary Sciacca ships in the "
LA INESPERADA has a history of flattening out. Claimed 2 back from Rudy/Dubb for $32K. Last race hounded a reasonably live Linda Rice filly Game Girl going a mile on the turf. Her chart looks better than her replay, as Game Girl briefly put her away, while faded, and was then persevered more than Game Girl. She adds some additional quality to the pace. Tempting to consider as a price. She doesn't have as much of a class edge as some other NY -> Philly shippers.

ACT III: pace projecter
(benefits Pennington and the )
..............
...............
................


Conclusion: Race Flow will ultimately be the strongest model in this race. should stalk and pounce, with (likeliest) or (next likeliest) holding for Place, after winning the race-within-the-race vs the other early speeds.

Not exactly a dream value scenario. or are the two that you hope to use, to inject some value. They just don't seem to fit.
I guess the winning late here could look visually impressive enough, that it will create value by betting against the next out. Hopefully this is not the race where she finishes out of the exacta after a dull bid behind the horses knocking heads on the pace.
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