I was not feeling so hot yesterday, so I spent the day reviewing the pps for all of the horses.
For me, there are only two fractions I care about in races longer than 7f--the 3/4 and the mile, and the difference between them.
I don't worry about early pace, a horse will blow itself up or it won't, but it rarely effects where they would have been at 8f in terms of being competitive. It effects where they would have been at 6f, but 6f is only important to me for determing when a particuler horse reaches its lactic acid threshold on average.
So I have a very unsophisticated sorting system?based on determing average time of each horse at both calls: I toss the high and low outlier times, and average the rest. I round up and down, no decimals. Then I map them on a yellow legal pad, with each horse depicted as as a little stick figure horse head with its intial for its face. I realize this will likely be laughed at, but it works more often than not.
All positions assume perfect trip, most comfortable pace for each horse.
Mendelsohn, Noble Indy, Justify, and Flameaway hit the stretch first, four across in 1:11, Bolt D'Oro is a length behind them. Audible and Good Magic are side by side a length behind him, Magnum Moon is a length behind them. Firenze Fire, Enticed, Solomini, and Promises Fullfilled are in a line a length behind him in 1:12. Free Drop Billy is two lengths behind them, Vino Rosso, Hofburg, Instilled Regard, Combatant, and Lone Sailor are on the advance are a length behind him in 1:13. Bravazo is with them but fading badly..
Twenty horses reach the stretch within 10 lengths of each other, just like 2005.
Mendelssohn, going strong, and Noble Indy, beginning to falter, hit the mile in 1:35. Audible and Good Magic hit it five lengths back at 1:36 moving well, along with Vino Rosso, Bolt D'Oro, Justify, Flameaway, and Hofburg who are starting to give way. Another five lengths back in 1:37 are: Firenze Fire, fading badly, Magnum Moon, Lone Sailor, moving well, Free Drop Billy, Instilled Regard, Enticed, Solomini, moving well, Promises Fulfilled, Combatant, moving well. Bravazo is all alone 5 lengths behind them in 1:38.
Two horses free in the late stretch, followed by two walls of horses, just like in 2005.
Just based on this, I would assume that Audible and Good Magic should be able to catch and pass Noble Indy. Lone Sailor, Solomini, and Combatant will catch and/or pass Vino Rosso, Bolt D'Oro, Justify, Flameaway, and Hofburg. Solomini will likely stall.
How I try to guess which horses will be passed and which will not is by tying to see which are likely the most tired and have shown a negative response to weight.
The best chances are Audible and Hofburg; followed by Good Magic, Vino Rosso, and Justify tied, followed by Flameaway, Noble Indy, Lone Sailor tied; followed by Solomini and Bolt D'Oro, Combatant tied.
Some observations: Bolt O'Oro has flattened and become more of a grinder as the distance has increased. Solomini could not captalize on a 5lb and 2lb weight break, respectively, in his last two races, losing ground in both. Combatant will be adding 8lbs. There does not appear to be a true one move closer.
These are the questions I rank the horses on:
Number of races in last six months and last twelve months, fewer is better, I do not like horses for whom the derby will be their 5th or more race in 6 months.
Number of races at 1 1/16th, fewer and later is better. I do not like to see a horse race beyond a mile as a 2 year old.
Number of races carry over 120lbs (more is better), number carrying over 123lbs (more is better), reaction to highest weight carried (slowed is worst, followed by went faster, no change is best).
Number of bad starts, gave ups, drifts, nimble moves, fights, and lost grounds.
Only Bolt O'Oro and Mendelssohn have carried weight over 123lbs, Mendelssohn's last race was 126, his race before that was 134.
Flameaway likes off tracks.
Anywho rip it apart
Edit to add-- the reason I see Justify giving way at the mile is because in his races the difference between the 6f and the 8f has been basically the same. This tells me his threshold is between 6-7f, which is pretty standard.
