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Believe it or not
I actually had two horses with alternative placements based on their smoothed average vs their last race because it was so different: Vino Rosso and Noble Indy.
With Noble Indy, I have three red up arrows having his mile at 1:37 (I round all of them), based on his final race. That should put him behind Audible, Good Magic, Vino Rosso, Bolt D'Oro, Justify, Flameaway, Hofburg, and Mendelssohn, which is not where he wants to be, I think.
He slowed considerably between 6-8f last out. Most here will likely think that was due to the track, I am more inclined to believe it was the 8lb increase more. I think he needs to be ahead of those other horses at the mile to have a shot, he needs to have a distance buffer, and hope that Vino Rosso, Flameaway, and Bolt D'Oro succumb to too many miles and the weight (Bolt D'Oro is least likely to feel his extra two pounds, but he has been hard ridden since last summer); that Justify and Hofburg succumb to the weight and their inexperience; that Audible and Good Magic have a bad day, and that Mendelssohn's consistent 1:35s across surfaces since November is nothing but a souped up track with a golden rail, because the weight is going to be a gnat to him and despite racing 8 times in 11 months only one of those races was over a mile, and he didn't reach a mile until November and the the Derby will only be his third start.
FWIW, Vino Rosso will be up against it if he runs his first 6f in 1:11-ish again, he was slowing considerably.
The reason I do not like to see a 2yo run longer than mile, on a steady progression from 5.5, reaching a mile in Oct, and then no races after that until at least February, and then a sprint first back, is because it is the path taken by Dr. Fager, Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Spectaular Bid. The road to the BJC followed by the road the KY Derby has a high attrition rate, and I'm inclined to defer to Charles Nerud who called it a meat grinder that he chose not to subject his horses to from Fager on.
Regarding Medelssohn's 1:35--his first two races where carrying 131lbs on good Curragh turf, which is softer than Newmarket good and like a bog compared to American good. He did ok-ish, then He went to soft turf at Doncaster and had the worst race of his life, then he went Newmarket good, and ran 7f in 122 carrying 127lbs, then he ran on firm American turf in 1:35 carrying 122, then he runs 8f in 1:38 carrying 134lbs at Dundalk on synthetic--the weight alone by standard calculation cost him two seconds (10 lengths), finally he runs 1:35 again carrying 126...on dirt.
I just think Noble Indy is not going to want to be playing catch up at the mile.
Thank you for taking me seriously.
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