Quote:
Originally Posted by OverlayHunter
classhandicapper - good point, I should have thought of that (or, at least, its "cousin" - its record in today's circumstance (class, dist, surf)
headhawg - thank you
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I agree.
Unquestionably the public is sophisticated enough to look through a horse's record and weed out some of the irrelevant races.
A backdoor example of overall record is using prior odds.
Let's say 2 horses raced against each other last time. The winner was 35-1 and the 2nd place finisher was 5/2. They had similar trips etc..and you conclude the 35-1 horse was simply better that day. If they go against each other again, that 5/2 will often be favored again despite losing last time. They'll be WAY closer in odds, but they won't flip (if they were 5-1 and 5/2 last time they probably would flip).
It's not so much their prior odds that matter to the follow up betting (except maybe with 1st time starters that took a lot of money), but those odds are sometimes a good proxy to the horse's overall record coming into that race. That overall record will continue to impact future betting with new races having more and more impact.
