Quote:
Originally Posted by denniswilliams
Jeff
I've been graphing races since I started playing Hong Kong - the larger field sizes lead to 'complicated' races. I've tried graphing them by horses' splits but the result is not very illuminating as the time differences are minor (and given the way the races are run there, there's a decent from the 1st to the 2nd fraction and an ascent to the 3rd, for example).
While it captures the acceleration between the 1st and 2nd call and the deceleration to the finish, it's not really showing me much - or, at least, not showing it clearly enough.
Is a better way presented in the book?
(Sorry, tried to paste a copy of an excel graph but it was too large to load, apparently)
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Donaldson's method was simple.
Horizontal lines running left to right with 1/5th of a second of vertical space between each line.
Vertical lines marking points of call - start, pace, and finish.
A dot for each horse at each point of call.
A line for each horse connecting the dots for that horse's points of call.
Final time for the race next to the winner.
Vertical space between the dots illustrates differential in time between the horses at each point of call.
From there
he emphasized using the plot to interpret improving or declining form for the horses in that race. (See his comments for Very Well and Lamp Black on pages 30 and 31.)
For sprints he used start, 4f pace call, and finish.
In a later chapter, he illustrated making time adjustments for routes using a plot that showed start, 4f pace call, 6f pace call, and finish.
In a later chapter he further wrote about using the plot (intersecting/rapidly declining lines) for trip handicapping.
Clickable thumbnails below showing pages 28, 29, 30, and 31 from How to Select Winning Horses (Montee Publishing Company 1936.)
Imo, the concepts presented are still valid today.
But also keep in mind plotting races, especially if you are gathering the data and doing the plots manually - can very quickly turn into a full time job.
Also keep in mind the money in the pools present day is orders of magnitude more efficient than even 10 years ago.
And yet, opportunities are still there to be found.
-jp
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