Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman
Having watched (most times intently) a nearly countless number of races, I'm surprised at how infrequently the winner seems evident-or even predictable- before the field straightens away. Since I believe in downloading as much experience as possible, when betting horses I will at least quickly scan, if at hand, the pp's even of races at tracks that don't interest me and then make a point of watching the action play out.
What I see is a plethora of front-runners surviving duels, closers blowing past slow fractions, non-chalks overcoming rough trips, and seemingly beaten runners mounting one last surge to score. And that's quite aside from all the rocky movers that dig in, pin their ears (sometimes literally), and defeat more athletic rivals.
The implications of this greatly intrigue me , and while race-flow and visuals remain core tenants of my (admittedly old-school) game, I've come to understand that tons of results outright defy (after the fact) traditional concepts of pace, trips, position, and reserve energy.
I do have some theories as to why-not complex ones, since no portion of this post represents any sort of earth-shattering epiphany-but will save them for later as I savor the cowboys writhing in their death throes.
Hope all is well, Jason.
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48-32!
Prescott looked awful.
Interested in some of your theories.
That would add a lot to this convo + the board in general lately and that's a shame that all of these knowledgeable players aren't discussing this type of stuff more often.
Races with depth of contenders, and sometimes simply full fields and/or Turf or Synth remind me that I'm often better at a Postmortem Analysis, than I am at Projection Forecast/Projection.
That's obvious, but I think Horseracing naturally leads us towards the Forecast/Projection and Predicting races.
Easily becomes the focus for most players(not most
dollars, but most
individuals).
A fair amount of players
ONLY do Predictions other than the aftermath of a race they wagered on.
Inversion is part of the tool box. Moderately useful for a bunch of stuff. Significantly useful once in a while.
Currently I'm doing a bunch of postmortems and notes and watch-lists, and save for a few 'epiphanies' that 'jump off the screen' in the minutes leading to a race, I'm mostly taking opinions and betting when the value seems to be there. Then kind of letting things happen.
Less 'exciting', but lately been profitable and building a long term thing.
