Originally Posted by Topcat
Lefty,
I have a lot of the RPM software programs that I have either purchased or people have sent me for testing. I have hundreds of BRIS files and have set up around 200 races from various tracks and meets as a sort of gauntlet for testing. I have them set up with date,race #, type/level of race,surface,conditions, # of horses in race, ML, Closing line, Fav odds, # horses under ,# of FTS, and payoffs of winners
The RPM software programs typically get ripped by many because they do not live up the hype of the advertising , “36% winners 59% ROI be a millionaire” that sort of thing. However it doesn’t mean they do not present some value, the biggest plus is they all use the same $1 file BRIS format which in my testing gave just about the same ROI as more expensive data from Handicappers Database.
The biggest challenge is that like all other software they end up churning the same key data points and in a predictable way, best speed in last 3 or 2 of 3 etc. . I once sent a note to Barry Meadows asking why do we always assume and handicap as if each horse would run back to its best race, what if they all ran back to their worst race or worst 2 of 3, he tested it and while still a net loser, it outperformed best 2 of last 3 ROI.
The other thing I’ve found is that in the modern era of whales, setting your own odds line and betting an overlay against the five minute line is not workable, too many times, odds change after the race goes off. Of course if you can bet any series of races and end up showing a profit you have by definition been betting on overlays.
I’m digressing, so… some of the RPM programs that I have and have tested are Winners Circle, Ideal Odds, Wizard of Odds, The Intangibles, Trainer Moves, Several other of the trainer program, Cramer’s Short Form, Race Track Millionaire, Bank Robber, Las Vegas Horseplayers Bible, Console’s TP Investor, Scott Hadley’s Quick Pick, Goldstein’s PEM, Angle Emporium, Worth’s Fitness Factor, All of NorCal Greg’s programs,Race Track Probability, Mack Johsnson,Late Shift, Manipulating Speed,the Tote Factor and probably a couple of others I don’t remember at the moment. I haven’t evaluated Master Consensus.
So what I test for in my gauntlet of races is I take the top 3 picks of the software in black box fashion and also test any listed factors of the program for those top 3 picks. To pass the program or one of its factors must have a profitable ROI when playing all races, or all races that the program gives output. I go 3 deep to challenge the program and to help compensate for the small gauntlet size. I’ve found this works almost as well as testing for thousands of races. Also the going 3 deep gets to overlay value horses.
So having said all that, here are the programs that have run the gauntlet and passed by having at least one factor profitable betting 3 deep for 200 races: Norcal Greg’s Power Pace, NorCal Greg’s Best of Five, Wizard of Odds, Goldstein’s’ PEM, The Intangibles, Winners Circle and an honorable mention to Cramer’s Short Form for a break even.
Some factors that I used to like and relied on, like trainer moves are now too common knowledge to get a positive ROI and while these trainer program can give you a good % , it is difficult to get an positive ROI.
Keep in mind I am not suggesting to anyone that they go out and buy these or that this is a definitive answer nor am I saying these are the best pieces of software I have tested . Just my opinion. Suggest each do their own research.
Hope this helps.
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