|
I love threads like this. I have my own pace formula which is built into HSH. It is more an energy distribution formula than a "pace" number. I believe in energy efficiency but only in regards to today's race. Sometimes one horse is just fundamentally faster than the others and will win regardless of the pace of race. If I were to run a 50 yard dash against a bunch of 7th graders, let's rephrase, if I were to run a 50 yard dash against a bunch of 5 year olds I would win. (Once, and then I would need a nap) In many races as we all know the dynamics of the race play a part in the outcome and I look for the horse whose natural energy distribution is most efficient relative to the others. Yes a most efficient way to run would be the same speed all the way around but horses are not cars and are not ridden like cars. Everything I have every read a jockey say about racing is they get out of the gate as clean as they can, try and get a good position and then they just become passengers letting the horse find their natural stride. If you look at any set of PP's it is fascinating how many running lines for a horse are very similar. Especially the first 2 calls. The jock doesn't look at the running lines and say, "Oh this horse likes to run fourth or fifth, 5 lengths back so that's where I will position him". I don't know if is from ability or pecking order of the horses but they all find their own position. I think most horses have 1 "run" in them and the better horses have 2. The jocks internal clock seems to gauge how much energy the horse has relative to the running of the race and good ones know the right time to ask for more. I get a mental image of the inside of a watch or clock with many gears all finely tuned to work with each other. The mass of horses moving is like one large gear and the individual horses are like smaller ones each affecting the whole. I don't just focus on the "pace", who will get the lead etc. I look at the favorite or a recent high speed figure at the distance horse. Than look at his energy distribution and see if there are others with similar distributions and/or others with opposite distributions which may set them up at being more efficient for today's race. None of this is new just my take.
Disclaimer: In life you should always be aware of the source when getting information. My TwinSpires account has $.80 in it. I think I am an ok handicapper but terrible at wagering!
|
