I don't even buy the physics argument.
IMO, every track plays differently and they sometimes even change during the course of a day.
On some days if a feint hearted horse guns to the lead in fast pace it will have a good chance to wire and run the best figure of it's life and on other days the same tactic would cause him to be hopelessly doomed and eased.
We can argue physics and theory until we are blue in the face. I won't be able to tell you exactly what's impacting these things but there's no way the formula for efficient running is fixed at "even paced" across tracks, surfaces, or even days.
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