I'm hearing post time is about 6pm US eastern time tonight
AJ = the favorite. A case can be made for a huge class edge, specifically if boxing experience is leaned upon.
Francis Ngannou is about a +200 or so underdog. I think first you ask whether or not you can see and understand boxing and these couple of boxers.
Then, one simple beginning is to go back the preceding question; "Is the 'huge class edge' thing true and significant here??
That is what is driving the market. Also the basics of what Teddy Atlas is weighing back and forth in the video.
Ngannou shocked me. I hadn't watched any ufc/mma footage, and I just assumed he would be somewhere between a complete joke and a solid fighter. This guy is a world class athlete, and he's disciplined.
We've seen Joshua drown in deep waters in a few of his fights. The Usyk fights 1&2 were examples of the classic type; A skilled boxer (in this case the relatively undersized Usyk) applies strategy in a cumulative effect.
Different / rare version of the deep-water-effect possible tonight.
AJ comes out thinking he's the one applying the strategy... moving about... The jab... control of distance... timing... ring generalship...
Joshua must be willing to win a unanimous decision in a finesse style. He's unlikely to hurt Ngannou unless he digs in. If Joshua goes toe to toe it's a little bit riskier. (
Anthony Joshua by Decision or Technical Decision +265 long shot is one step in that direction if you feel the same way).
Kind of surprised that the Anthony Joshua by KO/TKO/DQ is a much different offering as the -120! favorite and one would assume correlates to value discussions within the overall line. - I think the weight of a line like that is simply Favorite of a heavyweight fight means KO/power to the narrative and is true most of the time.
That's the point of what is unusual about this deep-water effect. Joshua hits this guy and he doesn't move. Then he finds out quickly if he isn't fighting defensively that Ngannou will be perfectly happy to trade punches.
It becomes a psychological thing... Does AJ stick to safety in the Finesse style that the betting public/prop-offerings don't believe is the narrative of the fight. The narrative is AJ=CLASS!=KNOCKOUT/TKO...
Is that (style/perception/machismo) even important whatsoever to AJ, or assuming that I'm on right path; Is AJ willing and disciplined enough to win 7 rounds on points?
