Quote:
Originally Posted by AutumnLotus
Thank you very much for taking the time to write out such a detailed response, truly I appreciate it and your suggestions will not go unnoticed.
Although I do want to say this, your suggestion of essentially assigning a percentage of probability between the three selections, essentially ranking them is a fine suggestion however one of the troubles that I have is doing exactly that; for the most part when I handicap a race and settle upon my three selections I honestly for the life of me cannot discern, or rather, I cannot see them as anything other than all three having the same chance of winning. I know that may come off as a bit odd or silly to say, but for the most part every time I attempt to assign a percentage of probability to separate them into rank and order I end up getting much too analytical, to the point where my line of confidence begins to muddy my decision making.
The problem I have is that I'll look at for example the first horse out of the 3 and I'll say something like this horse has the best speed figure by far, then I'll look at the second horse out of the three and I'll say something like but this worse has the best speed at distance today as well as the highest prime power number, then I'll look at the third horse and it'll be something like this horse today is being ridden by a high percentage winning jockey with a positive jockey and trainer combo.
I'm just throwing out super quick examples I'm sure you understand that I'm simply trying to say that I completely agree with your suggestion but I literally have a very hard time making solid decisions and assigning one has more value between the three in order to rank them appropriately.
Another very important point that I also want to make here is that At the end of the day I will always go back and look At the horses that have won and then I will look Over its past performance as well as my data to see if there is anything that stands out that I should have caught or that I know to look for next time and what I discover is that between the three selections the ones that I would think should have came in doesn't and the horse that did come in has Nothing of value that would suggest this horse over the other. I hope I am making sense. What I'm saying is when I go back and analyze what it is that made one horse out of my three come in for the win over the other two it seems to me that I would never have chose that horse to be the winner or to be the better of the other two.
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What you're looking for is a way rank your selections no matter how you arrive at your picks,
IE: Darts, Ouija Board, Selection Service or Handicapping.
You have gotten lots of helpful information in this thread, but let me try to Keep it simple.
Ist of all, if you don't have a record of your picks with results there is nothing anyone here can help you with.
If you have a record of selections that you used the same process for, take a random sample of 100 races and add up all of the winners like if you bet $2 on each.
You would have bet $600.
If you have a profit or come close to breaking even (lose less than 15%), do it again with another sample.
If you get good results the second time, then you may be able to rank you picks in order of profit/loss.
From my experience with the order I put my picks,
my 1st pick is long term break even, my 2nd pick is a winner and my 3rd pick needs work.
I use different strategies to arrive at each pick. I need my 3rd pick to come in the money more often because I like betting exotics.
Here's what to try once you find a selection process that gives you satisfactory results for your three picks.
Put your picks in order of,
Odds, ML or Post Time
Days off, Most to Least and Vice Versa "you will eliminate lots of horses from your contenders doing this"
Money Earned
Number of Races
Last Race Finish
Whatever other order that you can think off.
If nothing works then maybe an Episode of Vertigo will solve your problem.
