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KENTUCKY DERBY (G1) $2ML – 1M 1/8 DIRT (5:49 ET)
2 SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS 20-1
17 MOR SPIRT 10-1
10 WHITMORE 20-1
13 NYQUIST 4-1
20 DANZING CANDY 15-1
#2 SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS (20-1)
Closers like this one rarely ever win the Derby outright. Quite often, they make a serious late rally to pick up some pieces without really challenging for the top spot. But, I think this one is different. He has the kind of very late, and I mean in the final 100 yards late, acceleration that is rarely seen by a deep closer in the US. His late run in the Southwest was breathtaking. He was far back with half a furlong to go and he was moving two to their one late. Suffered major trouble in the Rebel 2 back and some traffic and wide in the Ark Derby last out. In both cases, he was taking lengths off of Creator in the final stages. Clockers have him working superbly. The Arkansas pipeline was very tough this year with full, deep fields. He drew the 13 and 14 in back to back races there. There are things to like, including likely 20-1 odds. If the pace percolates, there will be breaking news late.
#1 MOR SPIRIT (10-1)
Baffert and Stevens have won the Derby 7x (once together in '97 with Silver Charm). This runner is very reminiscent of Silver Charm. Both he and Silver Charm came into the Derby off of back to back runner-up finishes in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby. Watching the replays of his three-year old races, it is quite clear the strategy was to allow Mor Spirit to run just fast enough to earn points for the Derby and save as much horse as they could. He was a 650,000 purchase, quite a lot for a Pa-bred. Baffert himself did the bidding and, reportedly, really wanted him after he flashed a 10.1 furlong as a two-year old in training. He should be in a prime spot early. With the best connections.
#10 WHITMORE (20-1)
As mentioned with Suddenbreakingnews, the Arkansas Derby prep season was the strongest top to bottom anywhere. This one found some serious traffic and difficulties in many of those starts. He did hang a bit in his races but with Espinoza up, he might be sitting closer to the pace and that will be a very good thing. Has always looked like a serious runner. Could be overlooked at 30-1 in here.
#3 NYQUIST (4-1)
Nothing but good things with him, except for maybe the price. He’s undefeated and won the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in superb fashion. He really opened some eyes with that win. He beat 2nd favorite, Exaggerator in the San Vicente. Didn’t think he did much in the Florida Derby but he did take care of business professionally. He should be on every ticket, defensively, at the very least.
A) 2,4,10,11,13,17
B) 3,4,5,9,19
C) 6,14,15
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