Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P
|
Although GSW stlll in a strong position, this does seem to make things more interesting. A couple of days after I mentioned the discrepancy between the Vegas line and Nate's projections, in this thread, the Vegas line adjusted to Nate's as it sometimes does. And after the Cousins injury, the Vegas line predictably shifted again, so the odds to win the title are now 4-1 and 15/2 on Bucks and Raptors, respectively (down from 10-1 on both last week). But Nate, who had had GSW at 4/5, now has them at 7/5. This leaves ca. 60% worth of probability between (presumably) Bucks and Raptors, although Nate making both 4-1 (w/respect to other possible opponents).
It seems to me that all GSW action hinges on Curry's health -- even if he's not seriously injured, just missing crucial parts of one or two games could still cost them the title. And with the decline of D. Green, on both ends of the court, and a weaker bench, this isn't the same team that dominated the Cavs the past two years. Bogut is a smart and a good passer, but at 35, also a step slower -- I don't think his return is a major factor. Interesting to see how they look the next couple of games, but thinking there could be value here.
