I went back our Fountain of Youth analysis for this one. Looks like I'm going to indulge in all the wrong cognitive errors. I liked the
Mage then and I like him now, carrying forward his upside and a rough start excuse. I dismissed the
Cyclone Mischeif then and I'm against him now.
Not thrilled to see Aragona recommend
underneath in his preview, but maybe that draws money. His FoY puts him in the mix, but he was an uninspiring third there, and this doesn't set up any better for him.
The theory on
, partly borrowed from Mike Beer, is that he can beat
Mr. Peeks for the lead and hold for a strong finish in only his third start. Competitive on figs, late and early pace, class, and all that upside. Delgado not flashy but scores well in third outings. I will actually put a small wager on this guy to win, and a proper bet if he's not second choice.
Rabbit or not, that
has lost two maiden sprints from the lead and tries 50% more ground here. I didn't want to dismiss him at first with upside and passable speed and class figs, but no way he holds this field back. The
is just way classier. And has won a race.
Too bad about the
Dubyuhnell post, as this is an interesting one. Getting dismissed as a mudder, but that's half his short record right now. Might still merit a spot way underneath, but he needs to improve early or late a bit as it is. And third ML choice suggests he's not all that dark of a prospect.
Looked at the
, but Spalding No! talked me off him. Beyond the favorite, he does possess the best speed and late pace figs, and might even have a class edge coming out of the San Felipe. Someone's gotta fill the verticals, but hard to get excited about second ML choice. I'll hold my nose and use him sparingly.
The
Mr. Ripple isn't so bad for 30-1. Actually, he's arguably Joseph's brightest prospect. I'd like to see bigger figs, especially late. But he looks to get a decent trip and the distance. At close to those odds, he's a play underneath.
I wanted to do something with
West Coast Cowboy at 20-1. He's not wildly outclassed here, but he can't afford to get shuffled back, and gaining a forward position looks pretty grim in this one.
Which brings us to today's PA wise guy horse,
Nautical Star. I like the upside, he's not way outclassed, and I certainly like 30-1. First time with Joseph isn't the key angle here, but it's favorable enough. Distance is a question, but there are lots of questions. I just don't like his chances coming from way back with all the traffic and modest late pace figs, even if he did score his last from seventh.
Hard to muster the gumption to bet against
Forte. Also hard to like taking 3/5. He's got that outside post, and looks to navigate lots of traffic to prevail. The field looks weak, but if Mage delivers on its promise and Forte finds trouble amid the mediocrity, we could have an upset.
Give me
with defensive
primarily and
secondarily, then a little
deeper down, adding
,
,
to bulk up the low end.
