Quote:
Originally Posted by JerryBoyle
- the money that flows in late is smarter (we all knew this already)
- the final odds after all betting has concluded and the bets have been aggregated are the smartest you'll see (we all knew this)
- the largest increase in efficiency, where efficiency is defined as money moving generally to winning runners, is from the price you see at the start of the race to the final price. And this jump is much larger relative to going from 90 seconds out to 30s out*
- the only way to get the exact final odds would be to have a "god" model which has all inputs used by all bettors. Obviously this is impossible, so we must be comfortable with the idea that whatever model we build will not be perfect. It will be wrong, but the goal should be to reduce some measure, (squared error, r2, etc) between the price we think we're getting and the price we actually get
- there may be hope in the exacta pools for identifying where smart money is heading
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... yeah, and when horse racing pulls its head out of its ass and starts
putting the public on the live horses to begin with, then this stuff will revert to the generally-irrelevant category it used to occupy.
You're the only
gamble in town which can do that, so WTF wouldn't you...?
